Guide
The solar rebate shrinks every year, and waiting costs you twice
Published 2 September 2026 · 7 minute read
Almost everybody asking about solar in Parramatta asks the same question in the same order. What does it cost, what do I get back, and can it wait until next year.
The first two are worth a conversation. The third one has an answer already published by the Clean Energy Regulator, and it is the same answer every year: waiting costs you, and it costs you twice over.
The short version
- There is no NSW rebate on panels. The discount is federal and every installer gets the same one.
- A 2026 install earns five years of certificates. A 2027 install earns four, so the same system gets a fifth less.
- The battery discount steps down every six months, from a factor of 6.8 now to 5.7 in January.
- Waiting costs twice: a smaller discount, plus a year of full price bills you never get back.
- On our own payback arithmetic, a typical household saves about $1,700 a year, which is about $17,000 over ten.
- Power prices in NSW are not spiking. The reason to move is the countdown on the discount, not a scare about bills.
01
What a Parramatta household can claim right now
Start with the thing most people have backwards. There is no NSW rebate on solar panels. The discount on a rooftop system is federal, every installer in the state gets the same one, and it comes off your invoice before you ever see a price.
Batteries are different. That is where NSW puts money of its own, on top of the federal discount, and the two stack on the same battery.
- On the panels, federal onlySmall-scale technology certificates, assigned to your installer, taken off the price. Nothing from NSW.
- On the battery, about 30 per cent offThe federal Cheaper Home Batteries discount, aimed at around a 30% discount on the upfront cost of an eligible battery between 5 and 100 kWh.
- From NSW, a payment on topFor signing that battery up to a virtual power plant. Separate money, same battery, and available now with no closing date.
The full version of all three, with what each one is worth and what it is not, is on our NSW rebates page.
02
The part nobody mentions: it shrinks every single year
The federal discount is not a fixed pot of money sitting there waiting for you. It is calculated on how many years of generation are left before the scheme closes in 2030, and that number falls by one every January.
The Clean Energy Regulator publishes the whole countdown, years in advance. It is not a rumour, a sales tactic or a deadline somebody made up to hurry you along.
| Install in | Years of generation counted | Against 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 years | Full entitlement |
| 2027 | 4 years | A fifth less |
| 2028 | 3 years | Two fifths less |
| 2029 | 2 years | Three fifths less |
| 2030 | 1 year | Four fifths less |
Read that table again, because it is the whole argument. The same panels on the same roof earn a fifth fewer certificates next year than they do this year, and a fifth fewer again the year after.
The battery discount steps down twice a year
Batteries are on a faster clock than panels. The factor behind the Cheaper Home Batteries discount now moves every six months rather than once a year.
| Period | STC factor | Against today |
|---|---|---|
| May to Dec 2026 | 6.8 | Where we are now |
| Jan to Jun 2027 | 5.7 | About 16 per cent less |
| Jul to Dec 2027 | 5.2 | About 24 per cent less |
| Jan to Jun 2028 | 4.6 | About 32 per cent less |
| Jul to Dec 2030 | 2.1 | About 69 per cent less |
03
What waiting a year actually costs, in plain numbers
There are two costs to waiting and almost everybody counts only the first one.
- Of the panel discount, gone after this year
- 1/5Of the panel discount, gone after this year
- Off the battery discount from January
- 16%Off the battery discount from January
- Months of savings you never get back
- 12Months of savings you never get back
The first cost is the smaller discount, which you can see in the tables above. The second cost is the year of bills you paid in full while you thought about it, and that one never comes back.
A year of waiting is not a year of nothing happening. It is a year of paying full price for power you could have been making, plus a smaller discount at the end of it.
That is why the maths on this rarely says wait. A system that pays for itself in three years does not become a better idea in twelve months time, when it costs more after the discount and you are three quarters of a year further from breaking even.
04
What the saving is worth to your family, year after year
Here is the arithmetic from our payback page, on a 6.6kW system on a straightforward roof. The only thing that changes between the rows is how much of your own power you use during the day rather than export.
| Your household | Roughly a year | Over five years | Over ten |
|---|---|---|---|
| Out all day, using 30% | About $1,200 | About $6,000 | About $12,000 |
| Someone home some days, 50% | About $1,700 | About $8,500 | About $17,000 |
| Someone home most days, 70% | About $2,300 | About $11,500 | About $23,000 |
Nobody experiences that as cents per kilowatt hour. You experience it as the thing you did with the money instead.
- One year of the middle row is a family holiday, booked and paid for rather than put on a card.
- Two years is a season of sport, the registrations, the boots and the away weekends, for every kid in the house.
- Five years is a solid second car, or most of a kitchen.
- Ten years is a deposit sized number, sitting in an account instead of an energy retailer's.
There is one more reason the earlier years matter more than the later ones. Every year the system runs is a year of retail power you did not buy, and the feed-in benchmark for 2026-27 is 3.4 to 6.5 cents against the roughly 35 cents you pay to buy it back. The power you use yourself is worth about seven times the power you sell.
05
So is now actually a good time, or is that just the pitch
It is a fair question to ask an installer, so here is the honest version, including the part that does not help us.
Power prices in NSW are not spiking. Regulated standing offer prices for 2026-27 went down rather than up, so anybody telling you to buy solar this week because bills are about to explode is selling you something.
The case for acting early does not rest on that. It rests on two published countdowns and one piece of arithmetic that has not changed in years.
- The panel discount is at its highest it will ever be againFive deeming years in 2026, four in 2027, and the scheme is finished in 2030. This is published, not predicted.
- The battery discount steps down in January6.8 now, 5.7 from January, and every six months after that. Same battery, smaller discount, purely because of the date on the paperwork.
- The savings only start when the system doesTwelve months of deliberating is twelve months of full price power, and no rebate ever refunds that.
06
What to do this month if you want the current rates
- Find twelve months of billsNot one bill. A summer quarter and a winter quarter tell completely different stories about the same house.
- Work out when you actually use powerSomebody home during the day, or nobody until six. That single fact decides whether you want more panels or a battery.
- Get the price in writing, with the discount as its own lineSize, brand, price, exclusions and the certificate discount set out separately. A single number with 'rebate included' underneath tells you nothing you can check.
- Ask what happens if the install slips past a step downA straight answer to that question tells you a lot about who you are dealing with.
If you want ours, we read the twelve months, measure the useable part of the roof rather than the whole roof, and come back with a size, a price and a payback figure on one page. It costs nothing and there is no obligation at the end of it.
Before you book
Common questions
The ones that come up on nearly every first call, answered straight.
Not on the list? Call 1300 958 778 or send it through.
Is there a NSW government rebate for solar panels?
No. The discount on a rooftop solar system is federal, through small-scale technology certificates, and it is the same for every accredited installer in the state. NSW money goes to batteries, through the virtual power plant incentive.
How much less is the rebate next year?
For panels, a 2027 install is deemed over four years instead of five, so the same system earns a fifth fewer certificates. For batteries the factor drops from 6.8 to 5.7 in January 2027, which is about 16 per cent less, and it steps down again every six months after that.
When does the federal solar rebate end completely?
The small-scale scheme ends in 2030. A system installed in 2030 is deemed over a single year, so by then the discount is a fraction of what it is now.
Can I get the federal battery discount and the NSW incentive?
Yes, they stack on the same battery. The federal discount comes off the installed price, and the NSW incentive is paid for connecting that battery to a virtual power plant.
Does the discount get paid to me or to the installer?
In almost every case you assign the certificates to your installer and the discount comes off the invoice, so you never pay the full amount and wait for money back. Ask for it as a separate line on the quote so you can see what it is worth.
What if my install is booked but slips into next year?
The rates are set by the install date, not the quote date, so a job that slips past a step down is priced differently. Ask any installer what happens in that case before you sign, and get the answer in writing.
More guides
- What a battery install finds in an older Parramatta switchboardWhy a battery quote can grow on install day, what a crossed neutral is, and the five questions that keep it off your final invoice.
- The NSW Home Energy Saver, and what it will actually pay forZero interest loans are open, the discounts are not yet. The figures, the income tests, the eligible upgrades and the order you have to apply in.
- Three free hours a day, and what the Solar Sharer offer is worth in ParramattaFree power from 11am to 2pm sounds like a straightforward win. The conditions behind it decide whether it is one for your household.
Find out what your roof is worth.
Send the address and roughly what your quarterly bill runs to. You get a system size, a price and a payback figure in writing, before you commit to anything.